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Studies show that energy efficiency should play a significant role towards achieving cost-efficient 100% renewable energy systems. One way to attain cleaner heating solutions for the future is to utilise waste heat from power plants and industry through district heating. In the European Union, approximately 50% of thermal energy is lost in conversion processes. This research paper investigates the potential for the implementation of district heating in a future energy system originally intended not to include district heating. The paper approaches the problem by utilising TIMES modelling to frame the initial future energy system. However, MARKAL/TIMES is not ideal to investigate the operation of different heating scenarios, due to a lack of hourly modelling. Hence, the study utilises EnergyPLAN to investigate the implementation of district heating as an alternative heating scenario to individual heating. EnergyPLAN allows for simulating the hourly operation of not only electricity systems but also heating systems. The study investigates the implementation of district heating in the CO2-80 scenario created with the Irish TIMES model. As the Irish CO2-80 scenario does not include district heating, this study uses EnergyPLAN to simulate an 80% reduction scenario, with and without district heating, to compare the operation of the two systems. A sensitivity analysis is included to reflect on the uncertainties of the study. The results show that a district heating solution is more fuel-efficient while more investment heavy, however the fuel savings more than compensates for the increased investments. In total, the district heating scenario is close to 300 M € cheaper in annual costs than the individual heating scenario for Ireland, and achieves a fuel efficiency increase of 3.5% in the whole energy system due to an efficiency increase in the heating sector. The article shows both the relevance of using multiple models, and the need to consider district heating in a future Irish energy system.

Energy modeling and planning problems associated with technical, economic, political, and social development have been critical concerns in energy system planning and greenhouse gas emission control for both national and worldwide for many years. This paper modeled and analyzed the current and future energy supply and demand for an oil-rich energy system because energy intensity is very high in such countries. A high shared fossil fuels energy system is modeled, and an appropriate energy mix is proposed to meet the national commitment in Paris Agreement. The EnergyPLAN is used to model the energy system. Hourly actual energy demand and supply are provided for 2004–2016 for all energy sectors and subsectors and anticipated 2030. Five different scenarios are analyzed, and results show that the power sector is more influential than other energy demand sectors. Efficiency improvement of the thermal power plans and the integration of renewable energy resources into the power sector are more useful for reducing Total Primary Energy Consumption, CO2, and variable cost than other scenarios. In the proper scenario, a 1% improvement in the thermal power plants efficiency and 22% annual average growth rate in renewable energy capacity, 4% CO2 reduction can be achieved. It is concluded that in oil-rich counties such as Iran, the energy system efficiency improvement, particularly in electricity production, is more useful for the overall CO2 reduction goals. Efforts for total CO2 reduction benefit the national energy system economy, and the international community will benefit from a more efficient energy system. We believe that by total primary energy supply reduction in oil-rich countries, the international market's energy supply will be increased, which further reduces the pressure on the global oil and gas prices.

This paper investigates to which extent heat should be saved rather than produced and to which extent district heating infrastructures, rather than individual heating solutions, should be used in future sustainable smart energy systems. Based on a concrete proposal to implement the Danish governmental 2050 fossil-free vision, this paper identifies marginal heat production costs and compares these to marginal heat savings costs for two different levels of district heating. A suitable least-cost heating strategy seems to be to invest in an approximately 50% decrease in net heat demands in new buildings and buildings that are being renovated anyway, while the implementation of heat savings in buildings that are not being renovated hardly pays. Moreover, the analysis points in the direction that a least-cost strategy will be to provide approximately 2/3 of the heat demand from district heating and the rest from individual heat pumps.

This paper investigates to which extent heat should be saved rather than produced and to which extent district heating infrastructures, rather than individual heating solutions, should be used in future sustainable smart energy systems. Based on a concrete proposal to implement the Danish governmental 2050 fossil-free vision, this paper identifies marginal heat production costs and compares these to marginal heat savings costs for two different levels of district heating. A suitable least-cost heating strategy seems to be to invest in an approximately 50% decrease in net heat demands in new buildings and buildings that are being renovated anyway, while the implementation of heat savings in buildings that are not being renovated hardly pays. Moreover, the analysis points in the direction that a least-cost strategy will be to provide approximately 2/3 of the heat demand from district heating and the rest from individual heat pumps. ; This paper investigates to which extent heat should be saved rather than produced and to which extent district heating infrastructures, rather than individual heating solutions, should be used in future sustainable smart energy systems. Based on a concrete proposal to implement the Danish governmental 2050 fossil-free vision, this paper identifies marginal heat production costs and compares these to marginal heat savings costs for two different levels of district heating. A suitable least-cost heating strategy seems to be to invest in an approximately 50% decrease in net heat demands in new buildings and buildings that are being renovated anyway, while the implementation of heat savings in buildings that are not being renovated hardly pays. Moreover, the analysis points in the direction that a least-cost strategy will be to provide approximately 2/3 of the heat demand from district heating and the rest from individual heat pumps.

This report takes on an energy system perspective to quantify the benefits of energy efficiency in the European heating and cooling sector. This holistic approach enables to take into account sectors and systems interconnections in new ways. Doing so reveals significant results: for a future low-carbon EU energy system it is essential that energy efficiency measures on the supply side, like district energy, are considered with equal importance for decarbonisation as measures on the demand side, like heat savings. They are fundamental to the technical and economic viability of the Smart Energy System. District energy enables the use of sustainable energy that otherwise could not be utilised e.g. geothermal, industrial waste heat, solar thermal. District heating is essential for low-cost energy storage and creates an important link to the electricity sector via large-scale heat pumps. A more interconnected energy system enables sector integration. In the same way, district cooling often offer a direct opportunity to use the extracted heat in other applications e.g. district heating thus representing yet another synergy opportunity. Based on the Heat Roadmap Europe project series, this report elaborates an investment roadmap and policy recommendations to implement the Heat Roadmap Europe scenario in 2050. To reach a fully decarbonised energy system in 2050, it is essential to establish many new district heating systems now, with a significant expansion of these from 2025. This report stresses the urgency of immediate action, and that the redesign of energy systems requires long-term strategic energy planning. It is necessary to maintain long-term goals and translate them into actionable steps such as investment levels, new capacity targets, energy efficiency targets and others.

The transport sector contributes to approximately one third of Danish greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and almost half of emissions from the energy sector. A unified Danish parliament agreed to reduce total emissions with 70% compared to 1990 levels by 2030. This paper estimates the potential for reducing the national transport sector GHG emissions in 2030 and proposes a pathway towards full decarbonisation in 2045 using a complex set of measures. Towards 2030, the major focus is on an extensive electrification for passenger cars, alongside the implementation of significant measures to achieve lower growth rates for kilometers travelled by car and aircraft. From 2030 onwards, a decisive focus is set on sector integration. Production of electrofuels proves to be a key measure to decarbonize aviation, shipping and long-distance road freight transport. The results show a reduction of GHG emissions of 41% in 2030 and full decarbonisation in 2045. The reduction is achieved without a significant increase of socio-economic costs. From 2030 to 2045, a substantial electrification of road transport and a focus of moving the need for mobility from roads towards rail and bicycles drives the full-decarbonisation together with the replacement of fossil fuels with electrofuels for aviation, shipping and heavy-duty road transport.

Europe's capacity to explore the envisaged pathways that achieve its near- and long-term energy and climate objectives needs to be significantly enhanced. In this perspective, we discuss how this capacity is supported by energy and climate-economy models, and how international modelling teams are organised within structured communication channels and consortia as well as coordinate multi-model analyses to provide robust scientific evidence. Noting the lack of such a dedicated channel for the highly active yet currently fragmented European modelling landscape, we highlight the importance of transparency of modelling capabilities and processes, harmonisation of modelling parameters, disclosure of input and output datasets, interlinkages among models of different geographic granularity, and employment of models that transcend the highly harmonised core of tools used in model inter-comparisons. Finally, drawing from the COVID-19 pandemic, we discuss the need to expand the modelling comfort zone, by exploring extreme scenarios, disruptive innovations, and questions that transcend the energy and climate goals across the sustainability spectrum. A comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model framework offers a real example of "collective" science diplomacy, as an instrument to further support the ambitious goals of the EU Green Deal, in compliance with the EU claim to responsible research. ; This work was supported by the H2020 European Commission Projects "PARIS REINFORCE" under Grant Agreement No. 820846, "LOCOMOTION" under Grant Agreement No. 821105, "SENTINEL" under Grant Agreement No. 837089, and "NAVIGATE" under Grant Agreement No. 821124. The sole responsibility for the content of this paper lies with the authors; the paper does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Commission.